← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Sep 30, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Leigh Doughty, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 39% | 2.56 |
| Swansea win | 31% | 3.01 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn +0 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Swansea +0 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.64 |
| Over | 40% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Todd Cantwell · Blackburn |
| 36' | 🟨 | Sean McLoughlin · Blackburn |
| 44' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Franco · Swansea |
| 67' | ⚽ | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
| 72' | 🟨 | Josh Tymon · Swansea |
| 75' | 🟨 | Cameron Burgess · Swansea |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sondre Tronstad · Blackburn |
| 87' | 🟨 | Todd Cantwell · Blackburn |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackburn | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Ewood Park |
| coach days | 60.00 | 91.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1585.27 | 1609.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.73 | 1.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 67.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.36 |
| solidity v1 | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.08 | 25.72 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 251.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.16 |