← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver Langford, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 40% | 2.40 |
| Hull win | 32% | 3.08 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Watford −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.93 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | John Lundstram · Hull |
| 23' | 🟨 | Vivaldo · Watford |
| 25' | ⚽ | Oliver McBurnie · Hull |
| 30' | 🟨 | Ryan Giles · Hull |
| 50' | 🟨 | Cody Drameh · Hull |
| 60' | ⚽ | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 79' | ⚽ | Vivaldo · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Babajide David Akintola · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewie Coyle · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 57.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1383.51 | 1414.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.42 | -3.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.63 |
| league points | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 4.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 0.05 |
| solidity v1 | 0.54 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.65 | 28.19 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 233.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.75 |