← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Elliot Bell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 49% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
| Norwich win | 25% | 3.93 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Stoke −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.92 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Jovon Makama · Norwich |
| 48' | ⚽ | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 74' | 🟨 | Harry Darling · Norwich |
| 76' | 🟨 | Kenny McLean · Norwich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kellen Fisher · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 269.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1455.27 | 1424.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.11 | 22.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| league points | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.93 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 29.13 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 237.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 2.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.55 |