← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Farai Hallam, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 43% | 2.20 |
| Middlesbrough win | 30% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough −0.25 | 50% | 2.03 |
| Southampton −0.25 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.85 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Alfie Jones · Middlesbrough |
| 50' | 🟨 | Tommy Conway · Middlesbrough |
| 51' | 🟨 | David Strelec · Middlesbrough |
| 54' | 🟨 | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 61' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 77' | ⚽ | Mamadou Kaly Sene · Middlesbrough |
| 87' | 🟨 | Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sverre Nypan · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matt Targett · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 88.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1358.63 | 1504.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.11 | 48.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.36 | 1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 28.62 |
| state index | -0.77 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 408.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 0.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.21 |