← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Backhouse, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 41% | 2.39 |
| Blackburn win | 30% | 3.29 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Charlton −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over | 41% | 2.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Macaulay Gillesphey · Charlton |
| 39' | 🟨 | Lloyd Jones · Charlton |
| 58' | 🟨 | James Bree · Charlton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Sonny Carey · Charlton |
| 71' | 🟨 | Lewis Miller · Blackburn |
| 78' | ⚽ | Sonny Carey · Charlton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amari'i Bell · Charlton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Taylor Gardner-Hickman · Blackburn |
| 90' | ⚽ | James Bree · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Valley |
| coach days |
| 604.00 |
| 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1612.23 | 1455.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.04 | -2.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| league points | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | -0.04 |
| solidity v1 | 1.12 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.42 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 302.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.51 |