← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Tom Nield, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham win | 46% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
| Derby win | 27% | 3.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Derby −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over | 44% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Lewis O'Brien · Wrexham |
| 13' | 🟨 | Matthew Clarke · Derby |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Derby |
| 49' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Derby |
| 59' | ⚽ | Lewis O'Brien · Wrexham |
| 72' | ⚽ | Ben Brereton Díaz · Derby |
| 85' | 🟨 | David Ozoh · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlton Morris · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wrexham | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Racecourse Ground |
| coach days | 1549.00 | 238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1656.22 | 1370.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.99 | -0.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -1.01 |
| solidity v1 | -1.66 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 30.74 | 26.33 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.41 | 1.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 0.81 |