β EFL Championship 2025-26 Β· Sat, Sep 27, 11:30 AM UTC Β· ref: Dean Whitestone, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 44% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.31 |
| Millwall win | 27% | 3.62 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea β0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Millwall β0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | β½ | Ε½an Vipotnik Β· Swansea |
| 23' | π¨ | Ben Cabango Β· Swansea |
| 45' | β½ | Josh Coburn Β· Millwall |
| 62' | π¨ | Joe Bryan Β· Millwall |
| 81' | π¨ | Ryan Leonard Β· Millwall |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days | 88.00 | 300.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1467.11 | 1485.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.96 | -8.56 |
| eye test v1 | -1.06 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.50 | 67.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| league points | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.69 |
| scorer concentration | β | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -0.52 |
| solidity v1 | 0.56 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.99 | β |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.97 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.10 |