← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Thomas Kirk, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 47% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.56 |
| Birmingham win | 26% | 3.74 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry −0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Birmingham −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.93 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Brandon Thomas-Asante · Coventry |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jack Robinson · Birmingham |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jack Robinson · Birmingham |
| 42' | 🟥 | Jack Robinson · Birmingham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Haji Wright · Coventry |
| 48' | 🟨 | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 49' | ⚽ (og) | Bright Osayi-Samuel · Coventry |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 78' | ⚽ | Victor Torp · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Coventry | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Coventry Building Society Arena |
| coach days |
| 330.00 |
| 483.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1523.36 | 1705.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.75 | -28.70 |
| eye test v1 | 1.14 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.83 |
| league points | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.94 | 0.68 |
| solidity v1 | 0.67 | 1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | — | 28.95 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 25.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.07 | 1.48 |