← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Mon, Sep 22, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Josh Smith, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 48% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
| Watford win | 23% | 4.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Millwall −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.68 |
| Over | 43% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Camiel Neghli · Millwall |
| 30' | 🟨 | Joe Bryan · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 295.00 | 52.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1606.63 | 1546.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.90 | -6.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.75 |
| league points | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 9.31 | 9.21 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | -0.20 |
| solidity v1 | 0.63 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.41 | 24.52 |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 0.90 |