← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Backhouse, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 42% | 2.28 |
| Hull win | 32% | 3.04 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull +0.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Southampton +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.73 |
| Under | 44% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | John Lundstram · Hull |
| 22' | ⚽ | Kyle Joseph · Hull |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ryan Giles · Hull |
| 59' | ⚽ | John Lundstram · Hull |
| 70' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 70' | ⚽ | Oliver McBurnie · Hull |
| 85' | 🟨 | Enis Destan · Hull |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
| 87' | 🟨 | Regan Slater · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivor Pandur · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ross Stewart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | MKM Stadium |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| coach days | 81.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1403.54 | 1369.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.59 | 14.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| league points | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 1.16 |
| solidity v1 | -0.95 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.78 | 26.47 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 323.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 2.09 |