← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: John Busby, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 47% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.29 |
| Swansea win | 24% | 4.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Birmingham −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.58 |
| Over | 39% | 2.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Christoph Klarer · Birmingham |
| 18' | 🟨 | Ryan Allsop · Birmingham |
| 34' | 🟨 | Demarai Gray · Birmingham |
| 40' | 🟨 | Bright Osayi-Samuel · Birmingham |
| 56' | 🟨 | Zeidane Inoussa · Swansea |
| 82' | 🟨 | Josh Tymon · Swansea |
| 83' | 🟨 | Seung Ho Paik · Birmingham |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ben Cabango · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marko Stamenic · Swansea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lyndon Dykes · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days |
| 476.00 |
| 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1702.04 | 1470.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.86 | 10.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| league points | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | 1.58 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 0.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 29.24 | 26.99 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | 1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 169.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 0.86 |