← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 14, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 55% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.08 |
| Portsmouth win | 21% | 4.57 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Southampton −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Zak Swanson · Portsmouth |
| 47' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Mads Roerslev · Southampton |
| 73' | 🟨 | John Swift · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days |
| 75.00 |
| 987.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1368.09 | 1483.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.84 | 2.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 14.88 | 14.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.94 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.41 | — |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 26.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.98 | 1.25 |