← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Ricardo
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 54% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.51 |
| Derby win | 19% | 5.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −0.5 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Derby −0.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over | 41% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Derby |
| 62' | 🟨 | Callum Styles · West Brom |
| 84' | ⚽ | Andreas Weimann · Derby |
| 89' | 🟨 | Dion Sanderson · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 43.00 | 224.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1497.09 | 1365.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.10 | -17.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 14.10 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | -1.01 |
| solidity v1 | 0.76 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.57 | 26.33 |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 57.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.05 |