← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 39% | 2.51 |
| Blackburn win | 33% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn −0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Watford −0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.69 |
| Over | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | ⚽ | Ryoya Morishita · Blackburn |
| 58' | 🟨 | Todd Cantwell · Blackburn |
| 67' | 🟨 | Matthew Pollock · Watford |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ryan Hedges · Blackburn |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days |
| 43.00 |
| 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1399.86 | 1445.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.80 | -8.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| league points | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.42 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.88 | — |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 270.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.34 |