← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 38% | 2.56 |
| Stoke win | 32% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Stoke +0 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.65 |
| Over | 41% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | — · Stoke |
| 77' | 🟨 | Junior Tchamadeu · Stoke |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ben Pearson · Stoke |
| 83' | 🟨 | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bright Osayi-Samuel · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 255.00 | 469.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1598.32 | 1690.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.78 | 0.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.79 |
| league points | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 14.10 | 14.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.83 |
| solidity v1 | 0.44 | 1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.19 | 27.60 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | 1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 60.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 0.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.37 |