← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 49% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 |
| Oxford win | 24% | 4.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford +0.5 | 51% | 2.01 |
| Leicester +0.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Boubakary Soumaré · Leicester |
| 9' | ⚽ | Will Lankshear · Oxford |
| 13' | ⚽ | Jordan Ayew · Leicester |
| 24' | 🟥 | Aaron Ramsey · Leicester |
| 44' | ⚽ (og) | Boubakary Soumaré · Oxford |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jannik Vestergaard · Leicester |
| 55' | ⚽ | Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
| 63' | 🟨 | Sam Long · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Kassam Stadium |
| coach days | 43.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 3.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1435.98 | 1496.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.65 | 32.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -1.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 14.69 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.31 | -0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -0.46 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.70 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.62 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 0.61 |