← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 39% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
| Millwall win | 30% | 3.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Charlton −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over | 39% | 2.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Sonny Carey · Charlton |
| 54' | 🟨 | Tristan Crama · Millwall |
| 55' | 🟨 | Kayne Ramsay · Charlton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Lloyd Jones · Charlton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Kayne Ramsay · Charlton |
| 74' | 🟥 | Kayne Ramsay · Charlton |
| 88' | ⚽ | Raees Bangura-Williams · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Valley |
| coach days | 590.00 | 286.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 1.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1609.60 | 1474.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.06 | -16.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.90 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -0.71 |
| solidity v1 | 1.13 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -1.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.47 |