← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Hallam
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 38% | 2.55 |
| Watford win | 33% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Watford +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.87 |
| Over | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Cameron Archer · Southampton |
| 12' | 🟨 | Ryan Manning · Southampton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kwadwo Baah · Watford |
| 68' | 🟨 | Shea Charles · Southampton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Nestory Irankunda · Watford |
| 77' | 🟨 | James Abankwah · Watford |
| 78' | ⚽ | Ryan Manning · Southampton |
| 80' | 🟨 | Kuryu Matsuki · Southampton |
| 81' | ⚽ | Nestory Irankunda · Watford |
| 86' | 🟨 | Damion Downs · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 29.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1402.58 | 1365.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.52 | 5.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.57 |
| league points | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 1.03 |
| solidity v1 | -0.04 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.88 | 25.37 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 107.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 2.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.86 |