← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 46% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.38 |
| Wrexham win | 25% | 3.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.25 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Wrexham −0.25 | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.78 |
| Over | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 58' | ⚽ | Kieffer Moore · Wrexham |
| 64' | 🟨 | Callum Doyle · Wrexham |
| 82' | 🟨 | Raees Bangura-Williams · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis O'Brien · Wrexham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kieffer Moore · Wrexham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lewis O'Brien · Wrexham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 272.00 | 1521.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1484.13 | 1666.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.61 | -15.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| league points | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.16 | -2.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 30.98 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.92 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 3.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.94 |