← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 63% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.04 |
| Derby win | 13% | 7.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −1 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Ipswich −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.68 |
| Over | 43% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Jacob Greaves · Ipswich |
| 35' | 🟨 | Callum Elder · Derby |
| 40' | 🟨 | Kasey McAteer · Ipswich |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlton Morris · Derby |
| 54' | 🟨 | George Hirst · Ipswich |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Derby |
| 67' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Derby |
| 70' | ⚽ | Rhian Brewster · Derby |
| 75' | 🟨 | Bobby Clark · Derby |
| 85' | 🟨 | Dion Sanderson · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlton Morris · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Ozoh · Derby |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jack Clarke · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 1368.00 | 210.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1415.04 | 1362.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.47 | -7.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.79 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -1.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.70 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 26.33 |
| state index | -1.10 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 199.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 0.81 |