← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 42% | 2.50 |
| QPR win | 30% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR +0.25 | 52% | 1.95 |
| Charlton +0.25 | 48% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over | 44% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Paul Smyth · QPR |
| 17' | 🟨 | Conor Coventry · Charlton |
| 38' | 🟨 | Liam Morrison · QPR |
| 54' | ⚽ | Robert Apter · Charlton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Amadou Salif Mbengue · QPR |
| 78' | 🟨 | Josh Edwards · Charlton |
| 84' | ⚽ | Koki Saito · QPR |
| 90' | ⚽ | Richard Kone · QPR |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Loftus Road |
| coach days | 60.00 | 576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1403.51 | 1631.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.87 | -19.35 |
| eye test v1 | -1.26 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.79 |
| league points | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -0.56 |
| solidity v1 | -1.06 | 1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -1.14 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 18.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 0.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.58 | 1.25 |