← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Aug 29, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 39% | 2.45 |
| Birmingham win | 31% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −0.25 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Leicester −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · Leicester |
| 45' | 🟨 | Hamza Choudhury · Leicester |
| 57' | 🟨 | Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · Leicester |
| 62' | 🟨 | Kyogo Furuhashi · Birmingham |
| 64' | 🟨 | Christoph Klarer · Birmingham |
| 74' | 🟨 | Demarai Gray · Birmingham |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
| 88' | ⚽ | Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 28.00 | 454.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1672.33 | 1703.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.47 | 26.13 |
| eye test v1 | -1.03 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 6.31 | 6.21 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 0.98 |
| solidity v1 | -0.39 | 1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.48 | 27.50 |
| state index | 0.42 | 1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | 1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 51.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 0.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 1.43 |