← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 50% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.69 |
| Stoke win | 24% | 4.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Stoke −0.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.94 |
| Under | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Junior Tchamadeu · Stoke |
| 28' | 🟨 | Divin Mubama · Stoke |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tatsuki Seko · Stoke |
| 54' | ⚽ | Lewis Baker · Stoke |
| 57' | 🟨 | Nathan Wood · Southampton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Divin Mubama · Stoke |
| 59' | 🟥 | Divin Mubama · Stoke |
| 71' | 🟨 | Viktor Johansson · Stoke |
| 76' | ⚽ | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 79' | ⚽ | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 53.00 | 234.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1603.17 | 1597.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.68 | 18.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -0.39 |
| solidity v1 | -0.71 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.37 | 27.28 |
| state index | -0.00 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 237.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.09 | 1.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 0.74 |