← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 40% | 2.46 |
| Middlesbrough win | 32% | 3.02 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Norwich −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.90 |
| Over | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Finn Azaz · Middlesbrough |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tommy Conway · Middlesbrough |
| 48' | 🟨 | Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough |
| 58' | 🟥 | Jacob Wright · Norwich |
| 61' | 🟨 | Callum Brittain · Middlesbrough |
| 85' | ⚽ | Josh Sargent · Norwich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sverre Nypan · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1415.97 | 1477.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.66 | 7.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 0.60 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 29.13 | 28.62 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 274.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.29 |