⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Coventry 7–1 QPR

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Herczeg

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Coventry win65%1.50
Draw20%4.75
QPR win15%6.53

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
QPR −1.2553%1.88
Coventry −1.2547%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.73
Under44%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Haji Wright · Coventry
23'⚽Brandon Thomas-Asante · Coventry
28'🟨Jimmy Dunne · QPR
35'⚽Jack Rudoni · Coventry
37'⚽Haji Wright · Coventry
43'⚽Jack Rudoni · Coventry
47'⚽Victor Torp · Coventry
66'⚽Victor Torp · Coventry
75'🟨Amadou Salif Mbengue · QPR
90'🟨Liam Kitching · Coventry
90'⚽Richard Kone · QPR

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

5Half-time score0
19Shots10
8On target1
9Corners4
15Fouls8
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCoventryQPR
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.690.50
cards avg (last 5)3.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCoventry Building Society Arena
coach days295.0053.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.222.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.14
dominance (last 5)0.480.40
elo1515.531415.61
elo momentum (last 5)-10.32-19.83
eye test v1-0.07-1.22
eye trend v10.52-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)58.8052.20
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.430.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
keeper form v1—0.71
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2079.60
possession avg (last 5)52.4049.40
rest days7.107.00
season ppg2.000.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.809.20
skill v10.26-0.45
solidity v1-0.60-0.60
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.002.20
state index0.05-0.67
sterile dominance v1-0.020.54
threat rate (last 10)0.250.21
threat rate (last 3)0.350.19
threat rate (last 5)0.260.19
travel km—135.60
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.621.61
xg for avg (last 5)1.740.51