β EFL Championship 2025-26 Β· Sat, Aug 23, 11:30 AM UTC Β· ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
| Watford win | 21% | 4.75 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea β0.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Watford β0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.79 |
| Over | 45% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | β½ | Nestory Irankunda Β· Watford |
| 39' | π¨ | Hector Kyprianou Β· Watford |
| 54' | π¨ | Marko Stamenic Β· Swansea |
| 70' | π¨ | Jeremy Ngakia Β· Watford |
| 82' | β½ | Ε½an Vipotnik Β· Swansea |
| 90' | π¨ | Josh Tymon Β· Swansea |
| 90' | π¨ | Ethan Galbraith Β· Swansea |
| 90' | π¨ | Kwadwo Baah Β· Watford |
| 90' | π¨ | Ryan Andrews Β· Watford |
| 90' | π¨ | James Morris Β· Watford |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days | 53.00 | 22.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1461.29 | 1399.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.74 | -7.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.30 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -0.43 |
| solidity v1 | 0.79 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.99 | 27.88 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| travel km | β | 243.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 0.97 |