← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Aug 22, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 38% | 2.50 |
| Derby win | 31% | 3.09 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Bristol City +0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.61 |
| Over | 38% | 2.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Scott Twine · Bristol City |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jacob Widell Zetterström · Derby |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Derby |
| 86' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlton Morris · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days |
| 202.00 |
| 52.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1359.35 | 1528.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.94 | -7.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 6.31 | 6.21 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.50 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.03 | -1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.33 | — |
| state index | -0.61 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.94 |