← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 50% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.55 |
| Oxford win | 23% | 4.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Oxford −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.64 |
| Over | 41% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Joe Gelhardt · Hull |
| 9' | ⚽ | Will Lankshear · Oxford |
| 12' | 🟨 | Brodie Spencer · Oxford |
| 20' | ⚽ | Matt Crooks · Hull |
| 26' | ⚽ | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 27' | 🟨 | Matt Crooks · Hull |
| 90' | ⚽ | Oliver McBurnie · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | MKM Stadium |
| 47.00 |
| 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1418.29 | 1446.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.04 | -0.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 8.10 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -1.38 |
| solidity v1 | 1.10 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.78 | — |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.08 |