← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 17, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 49% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
| Southampton win | 25% | 3.90 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −0.5 | 51% | 1.98 |
| Ipswich −0.5 | 49% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.82 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ (og) | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Ipswich |
| 29' | ⚽ | Jay Robinson · Southampton |
| 41' | 🟨 | Welington · Southampton |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jack Taylor · Ipswich |
| 45' | 🟨 | Azor Matusiwa · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Shea Charles · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 1355.00 | 47.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1426.30 | 1371.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.38 | 11.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 8.67 | 7.98 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.34 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.08 | 25.23 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 217.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 2.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.32 |