← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 48% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
| QPR win | 24% | 3.91 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Watford −0.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.77 |
| Over | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Luca Kjerrumgaard · Watford |
| 23' | ⚽ | Luca Kjerrumgaard · Watford |
| 40' | 🟨 | Amadou Salif Mbengue · QPR |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kieran Morgan · QPR |
| 65' | 🟨 | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 79' | 🟨 | Karamoko Dembélé · QPR |
| 90' | 🟥 | Imrân Louza · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 15.00 | 46.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.56 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1389.93 | 1424.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.18 | 1.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.54 |
| solidity v1 | -0.89 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.88 | — |
| state index | -0.73 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 19.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.69 |