← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Nield
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 44% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
| Middlesbrough win | 28% | 3.53 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Middlesbrough −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | George Edmundson · Middlesbrough |
| 27' | 🟨 | Tristan Crama · Millwall |
| 31' | 🟨 | Josh Coburn · Millwall |
| 38' | 🟨 | Billy Mitchell · Millwall |
| 42' | 🟨 | Tommy Conway · Middlesbrough |
| 49' | ⚽ | Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough |
| 59' | 🟨 | Morgan Whittaker · Middlesbrough |
| 68' | 🟨 | Samuel Silvera · Middlesbrough |
| 70' | 🟨 | Zak Sturge · Millwall |
| 87' | ⚽ | Alfie Jones · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | 🟨 | Delano Burgzorg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Den |
| 90' | ⚽ | Delano Burgzorg · Middlesbrough |
| coach days | 258.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1493.79 | 1455.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.74 | -8.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | — |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | 0.60 |
| solidity v1 | -0.13 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 28.62 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.01 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.23 |