← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 40% | 2.48 |
| Blackburn win | 30% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Birmingham +0.25 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.61 |
| Over | 40% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Bright Osayi-Samuel · Birmingham |
| 50' | ⚽ | Todd Cantwell · Blackburn |
| 76' | 🟨 | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sean McLoughlin · Blackburn |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lyndon Dykes · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackburn | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Ewood Park |
| coach days | 15.00 | 441.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1450.15 | 1733.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.98 | 21.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.78 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 65.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.79 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 1.55 |
| solidity v1 | 0.37 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 29.24 |
| state index | 0.10 | 1.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | 1.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 145.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | — |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.88 | — |