← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 37% | 2.71 |
| Norwich win | 35% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth +0 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Norwich +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Harry Darling · Norwich |
| 14' | ⚽ | Josh Sargent · Norwich |
| 25' | 🟨 | Mirko Topić · Norwich |
| 37' | 🟨 | José Córdoba · Norwich |
| 58' | 🟨 | Regan Poole · Portsmouth |
| 84' | ⚽ | Adrian Segecic · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | John Swift · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Connor Ogilvie · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Darling · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 958.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1488.39 | 1401.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.80 | -20.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | 0.12 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 29.13 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 260.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 1.23 |