← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 42% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.28 |
| Derby win | 29% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby +0.25 | 50% | 2.03 |
| Coventry +0.25 | 50% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.63 |
| Over | 39% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Bobby Thomas · Coventry |
| 12' | ⚽ | Callum Elder · Derby |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Haji Wright · Coventry |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matthew Clarke · Derby |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bobby Thomas · Coventry |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlton Morris · Derby |
| 50' | ⚽ | Ebou Adams · Derby |
| 55' | 🟨 | Matt Grimes · Coventry |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ryan Nyambe · Derby |
| 72' | ⚽ | Brandon Thomas-Asante · Coventry |
| 75' | ⚽ | Ephron Mason-Clark · Coventry |
| 76' | 🟨 | Haji Wright · Coventry |
| 79' | ⚽ | Victor Torp · Coventry |
| 83' | 🟨 | Milan van Ewijk · Coventry |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carl Rushworth · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days | 196.00 | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1371.27 | 1503.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.98 | -10.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.55 | 0.05 |
| solidity v1 | 1.35 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.33 | — |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 52.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.63 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.32 |