← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 44% | 2.28 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
| Derby win | 26% | 3.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.5 | 56% | 1.75 |
| Stoke −0.5 | 44% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.54 |
| Over | 37% | 2.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Liam Thompson · Derby |
| 54' | 🟨 | Kayden Jackson · Derby |
| 60' | ⚽ | Carlton Morris · Derby |
| 70' | ⚽ | Lewis Baker · Stoke |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ben Wilmot · Stoke |
| 90' | ⚽ | Divin Mubama · Stoke |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 220.00 | 189.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1418.20 | 1382.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.46 | 28.44 |
| eye test v1 | -1.09 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 60.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | -1.49 |
| solidity v1 | -0.90 | 1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 26.33 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 49.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.90 | 0.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.17 |