← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 36% | 2.70 |
| Portsmouth win | 35% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Portsmouth +0 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.69 |
| Over | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Adrian Segecic · Portsmouth |
| 41' | 🟨 | John Swift · Portsmouth |
| 63' | 🟨 | Connor Ogilvie · Portsmouth |
| 64' | 🟨 | Tyler Goodrham · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Kassam Stadium |
| coach days | 8.00 | 951.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 1.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1457.51 | 1477.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.76 | 15.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.78 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | 0.01 |
| solidity v1 | 0.48 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.90 |