← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Herczeg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 44% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.34 |
| Millwall win | 27% | 3.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Millwall −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Japhet Tanganga · Millwall |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 52' | ⚽ | Camiel Neghli · Millwall |
| 55' | ⚽ | Josh Sargent · Norwich |
| 83' | ⚽ | Macaulay Langstaff · Millwall |
| 87' | 🟨 | Billy Mitchell · Millwall |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jacob Wright · Norwich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tristan Crama · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 8.00 | 251.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1411.62 | 1484.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.26 | 1.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | -1.14 |
| solidity v1 | -0.91 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 29.13 | — |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | -1.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.58 |