← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 9, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 52% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 |
| Wrexham win | 21% | 4.89 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −0.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Wrexham −0.5 | 47% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.90 |
| Over | 46% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Josh Windass · Wrexham |
| 25' | 🟨 | Max Cleworth · Wrexham |
| 32' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cameron Archer · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | James McClean · Wrexham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ryan Manning · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 39.00 | 1500.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1354.88 | 1707.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.95 | 26.17 |
| eye test v1 | -1.36 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 65.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.81 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -14.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -0.15 |
| solidity v1 | -1.21 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.56 | — |
| state index | -1.46 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.15 | — |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.62 | — |