← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 9, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 43% | 2.26 |
| Watford win | 29% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Charlton −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.72 |
| Over | 43% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Hector Kyprianou · Watford |
| 48' | 🟨 | Greg Docherty · Charlton |
| 52' | 🟨 | Kwadwo Baah · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Harvey Knibbs · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | The Valley |
| coach days | 555.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 3.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1578.85 | 1552.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.84 | -27.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.20 | -0.50 |
| solidity v1 | — | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.79 | 23.60 |
| state index | 0.78 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 35.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | — | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | — | 0.72 |