← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Aug 8, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 38% | 2.55 |
| Ipswich win | 33% | 2.97 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Ipswich +0 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over | 44% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Bright Osayi-Samuel · Birmingham |
| 19' | 🟨 | Jack Taylor · Ipswich |
| 44' | 🟨 | Azor Matusiwa · Ipswich |
| 55' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 71' | 🟨 | Seung Ho Paik · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Conor Chaplin · Ipswich |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | George Hirst · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days | 433.00 | 1346.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1741.89 | 1418.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.18 | -25.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.51 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.04 | -0.58 |
| solidity v1 | — | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 29.24 | 26.85 |
| state index | 1.50 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.95 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 210.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | — | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | — | 0.81 |