← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 42% | 19% | 2.33 | fair |
| West Brom win | 30% | 54% | 3.22 | value: +74% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom +0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Luton +0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Tom Fellows · West Brom |
| 9' | ⚽ | Millenic Alli · Luton |
| 30' | ⚽ | Daryl Dike · West Brom |
| 33' | ⚽ | Tom Fellows · West Brom |
| 57' | ⚽ | Callum Styles · West Brom |
| 61' | ⚽ | Callum Styles · West Brom |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Thelo Aasgaard · Luton |
| 73' | 🟨 | Semi Ajayi · West Brom |
| 88' | ⚽ | Millenic Alli · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Clark · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 32.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 5.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1621.40 | 1585.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.55 | 30.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 61.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.18 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 26.05 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 125.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 0.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.19 |