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Swansea 3–3 Oxford

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Bell

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea win60%1.59
Draw22%4.28
Oxford win17%5.67

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oxford −152%1.88
Swansea −148%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.89
Under48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Ji-sung Eom · Swansea
40'⚽Greg Leigh · Oxford
48'🟨Alex Matos · Oxford
57'⚽Ronald · Swansea
62'⚽Michał Helik · Oxford
82'⚽Liam Cullen · Swansea
90'🟨Cameron Brannagan · Oxford
90'⚽Przemysław Płacheta · Oxford

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots10
5On target7
5Corners4
8Fouls10
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSwanseaOxford
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.690.56
cards avg (last 5)1.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSwansea.com Stadium
coach days91.00153.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.603.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.662.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.09
dominance (last 5)0.580.44
elo1461.671455.63
elo momentum (last 5)38.371.19
eye test v1-0.06-0.85
eye trend v10.060.04
first sub minute (last 10)67.2057.60
form points (last 5)12.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.47
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.770.67
league points60.0052.00
league rank11.0017.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0065.20
possession avg (last 5)51.2036.40
rest days6.906.90
scorer concentration0.230.14
season ppg1.331.16
shot diff avg (last 5)3.60-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.8010.60
skill v10.13-1.79
solidity v11.310.52
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.00
squad age26.77—
state index0.46-0.29
sterile dominance v1-0.17-1.50
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.29
threat rate (last 5)0.270.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.00
xg against avg (last 5)0.741.21
xg for avg (last 5)1.630.76