⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Plymouth 1–2 Leeds

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Simpson

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leeds win76%1.26
Draw15%6.50
Plymouth win9%10.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leeds +1.7551%1.92
Plymouth +1.7549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over66%1.44
Under34%2.83

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽ (og)Sam Byram · Plymouth
44'🟨Muhamed Tijani · Plymouth
53'⚽Wilfried Gnonto · Leeds
84'🟨Victor Pálsson · Plymouth
85'🟨Joël Piroe · Leeds
90'🟨Manor Solomon · Leeds
90'⚽Manor Solomon · Leeds

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots25
0On target4
1Corners7
16Fouls8
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPlymouthLeeds
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.850.73
cards avg (last 5)1.801.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHome Park
coach days
122.00
672.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.403.60
corners against avg (last 5)7.402.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.006.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.072.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.07
dominance (last 5)0.380.66
elo1424.831660.54
elo momentum (last 5)22.6034.88
eye test v1-0.091.61
eye trend v10.750.48
first sub minute (last 10)60.0069.20
form points (last 5)9.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.002.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.73
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.60
keeper form v10.67—
league points46.0097.00
league rank23.001.00
matches since blank4.009.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)56.4087.80
possession avg (last 5)28.6062.80
rest days6.904.69
scorer concentration0.230.22
season ppg1.022.16
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.208.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.6015.40
skill v1-2.312.06
solidity v1-1.322.00
sot against avg (last 5)5.801.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.105.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.679.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.007.00
squad age—26.34
state index-0.191.16
sterile dominance v1-2.821.16
threat rate (last 10)0.290.23
threat rate (last 3)0.440.25
threat rate (last 5)0.360.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60
xg against avg (last 5)2.140.51
xg for avg (last 5)1.352.64