← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 63% | 1.54 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.80 |
| Cardiff win | 17% | 5.58 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Cardiff −1 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.61 |
| Under | 40% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Joe Ralls · Cardiff |
| 13' | ⚽ | Marcelino Núñez · Norwich |
| 16' | 🟥 | Calum Chambers · Cardiff |
| 17' | ⚽ | Marcelino Núñez · Norwich |
| 23' | ⚽ | Borja Sainz · Norwich |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jacob Wright · Norwich |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jack Stacey · Norwich |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Yousef Salech · Cardiff |
| 64' | 🟨 | Joel Bagan · Cardiff |
| 67' | ⚽ | Shane Duffy · Norwich |
| 73' | 🟨 | Callum Doyle · Norwich |
| 84' | ⚽ | Yousef Salech · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 19 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 32.00 | 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1399.98 | 1380.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.42 | -14.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| league points | 54.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.98 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | -0.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.40 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.40 | 28.24 |
| state index | -0.98 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 333.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.13 |