← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 63% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.44 |
| Millwall win | 15% | 6.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Millwall −1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.88 |
| Under | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Mihailo Ivanovic · Millwall |
| 13' | ⚽ | Josh Brownhill · Burnley |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jaidon Anthony · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Brownhill · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ | Josh Brownhill · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days |
| 306.00 |
| 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1660.58 | 1490.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.83 | 21.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.60 |
| league points | 97.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.16 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | -1.19 |
| solidity v1 | 1.10 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.21 | — |
| state index | 0.93 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.14 | -1.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.38 |