← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Speedie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 41% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.22 |
| Swansea win | 29% | 3.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Millwall −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.60 |
| Over | 40% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Ji-sung Eom · Swansea |
| 38' | ⚽ | George Saville · Millwall |
| 63' | 🟨 | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 146.00 | 84.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1482.52 | 1469.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.18 | 52.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.78 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.81 |
| league points | 63.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.52 | 1.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 27.06 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.36 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 0.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.48 |