← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 41% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| Derby win | 27% | 3.57 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Hull −0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 1.48 |
| Over | 35% | 2.77 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Sondre Langås · Derby |
| 39' | 🟨 | Harrison Armstrong · Derby |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alfie Jones · Hull |
| 84' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Phillips · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | The MKM Stadium |
| 146.00 |
| 84.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1423.71 | 1369.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.72 | 15.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.62 |
| league points | 48.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 57.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -1.91 |
| solidity v1 | 0.82 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.64 | 26.33 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -1.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 116.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 0.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.13 |