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Hull 0–1 Derby

← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hull win41%2.39
Draw32%3.00
Derby win27%3.57

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Derby −0.2551%1.91
Hull −0.2549%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.48
Over35%2.77

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Sondre Langås · Derby
39'🟨Harrison Armstrong · Derby
83'🟨Alfie Jones · Hull
84'⚽Nathaniel Phillips · Derby

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots6
2On target2
5Corners3
11Fouls15
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHullDerby
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.580.84
cards avg (last 5)0.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe MKM Stadium
coach days
146.00
84.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.16
corner diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.882.35
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.13
dominance (last 5)0.450.53
elo1423.711369.80
elo momentum (last 5)6.7215.23
eye test v1-0.20-0.74
eye trend v10.320.54
first sub minute (last 10)57.2059.10
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.780.62
league points48.0046.00
league rank21.0022.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0057.80
possession avg (last 5)51.2038.80
rest days5.005.00
scorer concentration0.180.22
season ppg1.091.05
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.800.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.0010.00
skill v1-0.01-1.91
solidity v10.821.23
sot against avg (last 5)3.402.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.302.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.20
squad age27.6426.33
state index-0.19-0.33
sterile dominance v10.07-1.44
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.260.22
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
travel km—116.90
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40
xg against avg (last 5)0.970.85
xg for avg (last 5)1.031.13