← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Linington
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 55% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.64 |
| QPR win | 19% | 5.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR +0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Burnley +0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.60 |
| Over | 40% | 2.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Hannibal Mejbri · Burnley |
| 9' | ⚽ | Josh Cullen · Burnley |
| 20' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · Burnley |
| 28' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · Burnley |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh Cullen · Burnley |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ronnie Edwards · QPR |
| 62' | ⚽ | Jeremy Sarmiento · Burnley |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jack Colback · QPR |
| 82' | 🟨 | Harrison Ashby · QPR |
| 89' | 🟨 | Michael Frey · QPR |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jeremy Sarmiento · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | MATRADE Loftus Road |
| coach days | 573.00 | 299.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1424.38 | 1649.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.44 | 17.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 67.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| league points | 53.00 | 94.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 4.90 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 0.62 |
| solidity v1 | 1.02 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.71 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 287.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.47 |