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Stoke 0–2 Sheffield United

← EFL Championship 2024-25 Β· Fri, Apr 25, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Gillett

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stoke win40%2.46
Sheffield United win31%3.10
Draw29%3.30

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United βˆ’0.2554%1.81
Stoke βˆ’0.2546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.67
Over43%2.28

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Ben Pearson · Stoke
25'🟨Tyrese Campbell · Sheffield United
38'⚽Sam McCallum · Sheffield United
51'🟨Sam McCallum · Sheffield United
56'🟨Ben Wilmot · Stoke
58'🟨Viktor Johansson · Stoke
87'⚽Andre Brooks · Sheffield United

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots13
3On target5
8Corners3
16Fouls11
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricStokeSheffield United
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.580.79
cards avg (last 5)2.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venuebet365 Stadium
coach days
114.00
511.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.06
corner diff avg (last 5)0.005.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.802.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.808.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.183.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.14
dominance (last 5)0.460.62
elo1430.831528.93
elo momentum (last 5)17.81-36.53
eye test v1-0.250.03
eye trend v10.07-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)54.6057.50
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.590.68
league points50.0088.00
league rank17.003.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2080.00
possession avg (last 5)45.6062.40
rest days4.214.10
scorer concentration0.160.18
season ppg1.142.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.406.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.4015.60
skill v1-0.520.60
solidity v1-0.150.72
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.20
squad age28.3226.70
state index-0.24-0.32
sterile dominance v1-0.180.69
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.200.23
threat rate (last 5)0.230.26
travel kmβ€”63.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.401.06
xg for avg (last 5)1.191.19