← EFL Championship 2024-25 · Mon, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 47% | 58% | 2.04 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Derby win | 23% | 17% | 4.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.5 | 52% | 1.86 |
| West Brom −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.56 |
| Over | 38% | 2.53 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Ebou Adams · Derby |
| 10' | 🟨 | Marcus Harness · Derby |
| 30' | ⚽ | Jerry Yates · Derby |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tom Fellows · West Brom |
| 70' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · West Brom |
| 87' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Phillips · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 20.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1643.83 | 1553.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.69 | 1.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 60.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 57.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -1.79 |
| solidity v1 | 0.65 | 1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.56 | 28.00 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 57.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.08 |